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Not sure if it actually doesn't match, but with the ability slots rather than ability IDs this script is very prone to failure with alternative pets, so I rewrote it, and made it independent of rounds and ability slots. Additionally added breath as last hope in case even the round "6" backup strategy doesn't work (tested by explicitly not using swarm and thus dying way too early).
-- switch before big lift off hit, dodge and switch further
change(#2) [ !enemy.ability(big:646).usable & enemy.ability(liftoff:2333).usable ]
change(#3) [ self.aura(dodge:333).exists ]
-- debuff and hit big
use(claw:919) [ !enemy.aura(claw:918).exists ]
-- fillers and backup strategy
Something is up with this rematch string. It put in Foulfeather instead of Ikky, despite the fact that I had Ikky selected here (my Foulfeather is only lvl 1 so wouldn't work, and I had to restart the match because I didn't notice the swap before starting).
This failed for me. Ikky didn't have time to do anything beside Black Claw. It got down to less than half health in just one attack, lost the speed bonus and got mauled the next turn. Thunderbolt was not enough to kill, it couldn't even trigger the failsafe.
Tried a second time and Ikky got to keep more than 700+ health, then this strat worked. Definitely not a guarantee though
I haven't really tested, but from my log of one battle just now, I think what you describe could happen if
a) Both rounds of [U-238 Rounds] get two shots in (25% chance) AND
b) At least one of the second pair of [U-238 Rounds] crits. (10% chance)
So the failure rate in this manner would be about 2.5%, or 1 in 40. I'll call that acceptable!